Definitions and explanations of terms used throughout Gridiron Edge
New to Gridiron Edge? Start with our Getting Started guide for a comprehensive overview.
The difference between our model's prediction and the betting market line, measured in points.
Example: If the market has Team A favored by 7 points but our model thinks they should only be favored by 3 points, we have a 4-point edge on Team B.
The actual betting line from sportsbooks. This is what you would bet against.
Example: Market Spread: -7 means the sportsbook has the home team favored by 7 points.
The betting market's total points line (over/under). This is what you would bet against.
Example: Market Total: 52.5 means you can bet over or under 52.5 total points.
A categorization system (A/B/C) based on edge size. Higher tiers represent stronger betting opportunities.
Breakdown:
Our model's recommendation against the spread. Shows which team to bet based on comparing our spread prediction to the market.
Example: Pick: Away Team +7 means we recommend betting the away team with 7 points.
Our model's recommendation for the total (over/under). Based on comparing our total prediction to the market total.
Example: Pick: Over 54.5 means our model predicts more points than the market line.
The larger of spread edge or total edge (in points). This represents the strongest betting opportunity for a game.
Example: If spread edge is 3.5 pts and total edge is 4.2 pts, Max Edge = 4.2 pts.
Our model's predicted point spread for a game, calculated using team power ratings and home field advantage.
Example: Model Spread: -5.2 means our model predicts the home team will win by about 5.2 points.
Our model's predicted total points for a game (over/under), based on team offensive/defensive ratings and pace.
Example: Model Total: 54.5 means our model predicts the game will have about 54-55 total points scored.
The automatic point advantage given to the home team in spread calculations. Research shows home teams typically win by about 2 points more than expected.
Example: If two teams have equal power ratings, the home team gets +2.0 points added to their spread prediction.
A team's overall strength score combining offensive and defensive capabilities. Higher numbers indicate stronger teams.
Example: A team with Power Rating 8.5 is stronger than a team with Power Rating 5.2.
A measure of a team's offensive strength, calculated from yards per play, success rate, EPA, and other offensive statistics.
Example: Teams with high Offense Rating typically score more points and move the ball more effectively.
A measure of a team's defensive strength, calculated from yards allowed per play, success rate allowed, and other defensive statistics.
Example: Teams with high Defense Rating typically allow fewer points and stop opponents more effectively.
A measure (0-1 scale) of how reliable a rating is, based on data quality and coverage. Higher confidence means more reliable predictions.
Example: Confidence 0.85 means the rating is very reliable. Confidence 0.45 means limited data, use with caution.
Indicates where the data used for ratings came from. Can be game-level stats, season-level stats, or baseline ratings.
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